Articles

ARTICLE

One Year After the Tsunami, Japan Is Back

January 01, 1970

by Bill Witherell, Chief Global Economist, Cumberland Advisors One year ago the Japanese economy was dealt a devastating blow by a major earthquake and the resulting tsunami and nuclear crisis. In 2011 Japanese economic growth, as measured by real (constant-price) GDP, is estimated to have declined by almost 1%. There are indications the economy is […]

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Return of the BRIC Equity Markets

January 01, 1970

This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at he OECD in Paris.  his bio is found on Cumberland’s homepage, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at [email protected] Last year’s series of disturbing shocks to the global economy and the willingness of global investors to take […]

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McVean Weekly Update – February 24, 2012

January 01, 1970

by Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Taylor Somerville, CFA, Senior Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Vadim Sinitsyn, Associate Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Historically, economists have found that when a country’s per capita GDP exceeds $3,000 good things happen. Wealthier households begin to invest in durable goods, like automobiles […]

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Paul after PIMCO

February 09, 2012

By Jennifer Ablan and Matthew Goldstein, Reuters

Paul McCulley says working at bond giant PIMCO was like being in Camelot. […]

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PCE and CPI

February 08, 2012

By David Kotok

“The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures[…]

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Asset Safety in the post-MF Global World

January 01, 1970

by David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisors December 26, 2011 We wish our clients, referring consultants, professional colleagues, friends, and all of our readers a happy holiday season and a healthy new year. We also encourage them to ask very hard questions as they work to keep their money and investments […]

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PIMCO Veteran Paul McCulley: A New Model for Understanding Geopolitical Crises

December 22, 2011

by Jason Voss, CFA

As a former portfolio manager, I know that practitioners often pay too much attention to micro-level issues of individual securities and not enough attention to the broader macro-level context […]

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The Nonbank-Bank Nexus and the Shadow Banking System

January 01, 1970

by Zoltan Pozsar and Manmohan Singh Abstract The present way of thinking about financial intermediation does not fully incorporate the rise of asset managers as a major source of funding for banks through the shadow banking system. Asset managers are dominant sources of demand for non-M2 types of money and serve as source collateral ‘mines’ […]

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Why Banking Works One Big Confidence Trick

January 01, 1970

by Zoltan Pozsar Banking is one large, clever, and finely tuned, confidence trick. On the one hand are bank notes which are “legal tender for all debts, public and private”, trade at par and are referred to as money. They are liabilities of the sovereign. On the other are demand deposits – from savings to […]

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Why is the Damned Euro So Damn Strong?

December 02, 2011

by Paul Horne, Independent Market Economist Why IS the euro so strong against the dollar when bond markets have it on its death bed? Since the onset of the crisis in Greece in late 2009, foreign exchange-traders have been forecasting that the euro will sink to dollar parity before becoming extinct. This expectation is considered […]

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Paul McCulley’s interview in Welling @ Weeden

January 01, 1970

Greatest Moral Hazard, Says Paul McCulley, Is Austerity Here and Now.

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GIC Board Member, J. Paul Horne

January 01, 1970

Three years after the worst financial-economic crisis since the 1930s began; a new international financial, regulatory and fiscal architecture has emerged.

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