Speaker All Aaron Wagner Abby Ivory Abdullah Alireza Adair Turner Adam Johnson Adam Weatherby Adolfo L. Laurenti Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Ph.D. Aitor Erce Akinari Horii Al Altomari Alan Ahearne Alan Tilles Alejandrina Salcedo Alejandro Werner Alexander Kashturov Alfonso Prat-Gay Ali A. Houshmand Alison Gardner Allan Timmermann Ambassador Welile Nhlapo Ana Ramirez André Kurmann, Ph.D. Andrea M. Matwyshyn, Ph.D. Andrew Boyle Andrew Hodge Andrew J. Patterson, CFA Andy Freire Andy Wentzy Ann G. Bordelon Ann Kirschner Annetta Cortez Anthony Abbatiello Anthony M. Santomero, Ph.D. Anthony Murphy Antoine Martin Antti Suvanto, Ph.D. Apostolos Apostolou Areva Arnaud Marès Arnold Maltz, Ph.D. Atul Vohra Aviva Werner Axel A. Weber Barry Broome Barry Morrow Ben Craig Ben McAdams Benjamin Leavenworth Betsy Burton Bill Dunkelberg, Ph.D. Bill Miller, CFA Bill Morris Bill Nelson Bill Shiebler Bill Stone Bill Strauss Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Bin Hu Jan, Ph.D. Blair L. Fortner Bob Bunting Bob Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Bob Jenks Bob Mendte Bodhi Ganguli, Ph.D. Bradley S. Bateman Brady Murray Brent D. Williams Brent Johnson Brian Dawson Bruce Cohen Bruce Gellin, M.D., M.P.H. Bryan Miller C. Bailey Ragan Caleb Fundanga, Ph.D. Calvin B. Johnson, M.D., M.P.H. Cameron Gunter Camille Miller Carl B. Hamilton, Ph.D. Carl Marcotte Carlo Favero, D.Phil. Carmen B. Pingree Carmen I. Paris Carmen Krueger Carsten Valgreen Catherine L. Mann, Ph.D. Cathy Chambless, Ph.D. Cecilia Hermansson Cezary Wójcik Chad Salvadore Charles Evans Charles Gabriel Charles Goodhart Charles I. Plosser, Ph.D. Cherissa Alldredge Cheryl B. Schrader Cheryl Wright Chikahisa Sumi Chris Jylkka Christian Kastrop Christian Noyer Christina Riggs Christine A. Parlour Christine Bliss Christopher Gannatti Christopher Johnson Christopher Melly Christopher Verrone Christopher Whalen Christopher Zimmerman Cletus C. Coughlin Colby Beland Constance Hunter Constance Mitchell Ford Consuelo Mack Craig Newschaffer Curtis K. S. Levinson Dallas Graham Dan Bucşa, Ph.D. Dan Halstrom Dan Macklowitz Dana Allison Daniel Basse Daniel Chiquiar Daniel Fermon Daniel Miró Daniel Sullivan, Ph.D. Danielle DiMartino Booth Darin Brush David Babbel, Ph.D. David Crowe, Ph.D. David E. Altig, Ph.D. David E. Dismukes, Ph.D. David Hitchcock David J. Salmonsen David Kotok David Lehman David Lincoln David Llewellyn David Mills David Oppedahl David Pimentel, Ph.D. David W. Berson, Ph.D Dean Croushore Debora Revoltella DeMond S. Miller Deniece Laurent-Mantey Dennis Hunt Dennis P. Lockhart Dennis Rochford Dennis Wayne Archer, Esq. Diego A. Estevez Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela Dino Kos Domenic D’Ginto Donald Rissmiller Doug Bruhnke Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D. Dov Greenbaum Dr. Martha Namundjebo-Tilahun Ed Yardeni, Ph.D. Eddie Sanchez, Jr. Edward B. Overton, Ph.D. Edward Keon Elena Duggar Elena Nieto Elizabeth Whisamore, SPHR Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ph.D. Elliot Francis Emanuel Mönch Eric Bradley Eric Platt Eric Rosengren, Ph.D. Erin Arvedlund Erkki Liikanen Ernie Dianastasis Esther Brimmer Eugenio J. Alemán Eugenio J. Alemán, Ph.D. Fabio Battaglia Federico Mandelman Felipe Richard Ferenc Karvalits Filippo di Mauro Florizelle Liser François Villeroy de Galhau Francois-Xavier Chevallier Frank Linnehan, Ph.D. Frank Morisano Frode Kjersem Gary Knapp Genevieve Smith George A. Kahn George Tsetsekos, Ph.D. Gilles Noblet Ginger Chinn Ginger Imster Glenn Williamson Greg Cipolaro Gregorio De Felice Gregorio De Felice Gudrun Monika Moede H.E. Daouda Diabate H.E. Dr. Barfuor Adjei-Barwuah H.E. Dr. Erieka Bennett H.E. Joseph Henry Smith H.E. Lily Letawo Munanka H.E. Limbiye E. Kadangha Bariki H.E. Mahamadou Nimaga Hank Marshall Hans Humes Harley Bassman Harold M. Reed Harold T. Epps Harvey Rosenblum, Ph.D. Hector Negroni Henry Mo, Ph.D. Herbert Taylor, Ph.D. Hervé Goulletquer Hidemi Moue Hiro Ito, Ph.D. Honorable Carlos I. Giralt-Cabrales Hubert Fromlet, Ph.D. Huw Pill Ian Galloway Ilmars Rimsevics Inza Camara Isabell Koske Isabelle Corbett Isabelle Job-Bazille J. Paul Horne Jaime Caruana Jamee Rawlings Beus James Allen James Bullard, Ph.D. James H. Pullen James Lee Sorenson James Lucier James McAndrews James Nadler James O’Brien James P. Roemer Jan Bergeson Jane Hennessy Jannie L. Blackwell Jasen Lee Jason DeSena Trennert Jay A. Borkland Jay Francis Jay Simkin Jeff Curry Jeff Miller Jeff Saut Jeff Uscher Jefferson Braswell Jefferson Burton Jeffrey Hayzlett Jeffrey Korzenik Jeffrey Lacker, Ph.D. Jeffrey P. Gold, M.D. Jeffrey Sachs Jennifer Hwu Jens Weidmann Jeremy Schwartz Jerry Webman, Ph.D. Jesper Koll Jessie C. Jarvis, Ph.D. Jim Bianco Jim Cunha Jim Parke Joe Mysak Joe Zidle John Calverly John Cushman John Fry John Harpole John Hassler, Ph.D. John L. Davis John M. Carbone John Mauldin John McCarthy John Mousseau John Ryding John Silvia, Ph.D. Jon Nicolaisen Jonathan Basile Jonathan Prin Jorge Duany Jorge Sicilia José De Gregorio, Ph.D. Jose H. Velasco Jose Luis Malo de Molina José M. González-Páramo José Maria Brandão de Brito José María Ghio José Siaba Serrate Joselyn Cousins Joseph Davis Joseph Engelhard Joseph Ingemi Joseph N. Gousie, Sr. Joseph Nelesen, Ph.D. Joseph Nyuma Boakai Josh Rosner Joshua Cregger Juan C. Barboza Juan M. Sánchez Jukka Pietikäinen Julian Callow Julie L. Stackhouse Kahiga A. Tiagha Kasandra VerBrugghen Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska Kathleen McNamara Kathleen Stephansen Kathy Baylis Katie Stockton Keith Wade Ken Prewitt Kevin Kliesen Kevin Krosley Kevin Sullivan Kevin Williams Kim P. Huynh Kimberley Claman Konstantinos Polykarpou Kozo Koide Kristian Orsini Kyle Walker Larry Otto Lars Björk Lars Nyberg Laura Anderson Laura D. Speake Laurence H. Meyer, Ph.D. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Ph.D. Laurie Harmon Lee Buchheit Leif Trana Leland R. Miller Lenny Landau Leo Chen Leopoldo J. Martínez Lesley A. McClure Leslie Lynn Smith Leslie McGranahan Lewis Hower Lin William Cong Lisa McIntire Shaw Livia J. Klimovitsky Szabo Livio Stracca, Ph.D. Lloyd A. Jacobs, MD Loren Scott Loretta Mester, Ph.D. Luc Riedweg Ludger Schuknecht Luke Tilley Maciej Stanczuk Mae DeVincentis Manuel Aguilera Manuel Balmaseda Manuel Muñiz Manuel Sánchez González Manus Cranny Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn Marcos Buscaglia Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro Marcos Souto Marg Franklin Mario Ignacio Artaza Mark Adelson Mark Gottfredson Mark Heppenstall Mark McMullen Mark Squilla Mark Stidham Mark Wright Mark Wynne Mark Zandi Marten Ross Marti Tirinnanzi Martin Barnes Martin Sandbu, Ph.D. Marvin A. Kaiser, Ph.D. Mary Ann Bartels Mary C. Suiter Mary Caraccioli Mary Francoeur Mary Graham Davis Masanori Nishi Masashi Adachi Massimo Rostagno Mathula Nkosi Mats Andersson Mats Wilhelmsson, Ph.D. Matt Salmon Matteo Bugamelli, Ph.D. Matthew J. Thomas Matthew Lanfear Matthew McAleer Matthew T. Reining Megan E. Greene Michael Boldin Michael Bryan Michael Comes Michael Dooley, Ph.D. Michael Dotsey Michael Drury Michael G. Papaioannou Michael Kumhof, Ph.D. Michael Leeds, Ph.D. Michael Marrese, Ph.D. Michael McKee Michael McNiven, Ph.D. Michael Melvin Michael Woodbury Mickey Levy, Ph.D. Mike Warner Mike Willhard Mikihide Katsumata Mine K. Yücel, Ph.D. Mohamed Daoud Mohit Bajaj Monika Machon Mykyta Vesselovsky Natalie Cohen Nathan Kowalski Nayantara Hensel, Ph.D. Nicholas Colas Nick Fritz Nick Kiritz Nolan Bauerle Norbert Gaillard, Ph.D. Olivier Coibion, Ph.D. Olivier Garnier Oscar Arce Oshunbumi Fernandez-West Pablo Druck Palmer DePaulis Patricia Healy Patricia Pettinati Patrick Foley Patrick Honohan, Ph.D. Patrick T. Harker Paul Christopher Paul F. O’Brien, Ph.D. Paul Homsy Paul J. Thanos Paul Jensen Paul McCulley Paul Thomas, Ph.D. Paul Walsh Pedro Antonio Merino García Pekka Sutela Peter A. Gold, Esq. Peter Berezin, Ph.D. Peter Demirali Peter J. Wallison Peter Kerstens Peter P. Burns Peter Praet Philip Kenworthy Philip Levy Philippa Dunne Philippe Bodereau Philippe Jorion Philippe Waechter Pierre Jaillet Pilar L’Hotellerie-Fallois Preston McAfee R. Anthony Salgado Rachel Ben-Avi, Ph.D. Rafael M. Molina Rajeev Dhawan, Ph.D. Ralph Giraud Randall W. Powell, Ph.D. Raphael W. Bostic Ray Dillon Ray Ritcey Rhonda Schaffler Rich Lawrence Richard (Dick) Mayo Richard Cincotta Richard Daskin Richard Francis Richard K. Mastain Richard S. Dovey Richard W. Vague Rick Mattoon Rintaro Tamaki Rob D’Ovidio, Ph.D. Rob Sentz Robert Bergqvist Robert Chamberlin Robert Dolan, Ph.D. Robert E. Grady Robert Hockett Robert J. Heiss Robert J. Ryan Robert Kurtter Robert M. Hunt Robert S. Kaplan Roberto Coronado, Ph.D. Rochelle (“Chellie”) L. Cameron Rodney Garratt Rose Sager Rudy Penner Ryan Nelson Sabrina Spatari Safia Keller Salvatore Rossi Sam Ruda Samuel Worzie Sandra Pianalto Santiago Pinto Satyajit Chatterjee Scott MacDonald, Ph.D. Scott Smith Sean Carney Sean Egan Senator Sharif Street Seppo Honkapohja Sheila Bair Shigeki Kimura Shinobu Nakagawa, Ph.D. Spencer P. Eccles Stanley Straughter Stefan Ingves, Ph.D. Stephane Deo Stephanie Gold Stephanie Mackay Stephen Kay Stephen Sexauer Stephen Tokarick Steve C. Clemons Steven Lee Steven Malin, Ph.D. Steven T. Kargman Stuart Hoffman, Ph.D. Susan Akbarpour Susan Harper Susan Kalla Suzi Montgomery Tamon Asonuma Tanel Ross Tara Cunningham Tarik Ramirez Taylor Woodbury Ted Chu, Ph.D. Terrell Dougan Terry Brewer Terry Cooke, Ph.D. Terry Miller The Global Interdependence Center Thomas G. Donlan Thomas Walstrum Thordur Jonasson Thorkil Sonne Tiago Tavares Tim Lloyd Tim Weckesser, Ph.D. Timo Tyrvainen Timo Viherkenttä Tom Barkin Tom Harmer Tom Hoenig Tom Kimner Tom Kozlik Tom Potiowsky, Ph.D. Tom Tzitzouris Tonio DeSorrento Torkel Patterson Troy D’Ambrosio Troy Downing Tyler Hardy Tyler Norton Ulrich (Uli) Kortsch Urs Birchler V.R. Ferose Valérie Mignon, Ph.D. Vanessa Williamsen Vesa Alatalo Vibhas Madan, Ph.D. Vicente Montes Gan Victor L. Crawford Vincent T. Lowry Vito Racanelli Volker Wieland, Ph.D. W. David Hemingway Wally Hawley Ward Klein Warren Weber Wayne Niederhauser Werner Hahn William Burke-White William Clark William Dennis William J. Hogan William Kennedy William McMahon William Poole, Ph.D. William Powers Yancy Molnar Yaya J. Fanusie Yoichi Takita Yoshinori Nakata Yu-Ming Wang Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ph.D. Zachary Mottl Zoltan Pozsar
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By Timothy Weckesser, Ph.D. & Yang Lin, Sino-Consulting We recently completed a comprehensive study of China’s electric vehicle industry which, we believe, presents a vivid example of what “industrial planning” means in that country. China’s economy is often a hard-to-define mixture of pure private enterprise and comprehensive central planning, as evidenced by the well-known Five-Year […]
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The below editorial was published in the June 11, 2012 edition of the USA TODAY. The electronic version can be found here. by David Kotok Many analysts argue that the eurozone crisis will put the U.S. economy into a recession. They are wrong. Most fail to acknowledge the lessons learned by Americans during the last […]
by J. Paul Horne, Independent Market Economist* Europe must be grateful to Greece for dramatizing: how the Euro is fundamentally flawed; how the Euro’s failure could cause a financial-economic disaster; and how European Union (EU) leaders must, despite all their differences and electoral setbacks cooperate to avoid a Greek tragedy. This week will be crucial […]
By J. Paul Horne, Independent International Market Economist* Well, he’s in with nearly 52% of the popular vote as Sarkozy was rebuffed with barely 48%, only the second President of the Fifth Republic to be voted out after only one term, a major political reversal for the right. Sarko paid the price of the financial […]
The old adage “Sell in May and go away” was good guidance for stock markets last year. The market peaked on April 29 and bottomed on October 3. For a detailed discussion of this period and the subsequent bull-market recovery, see our new book From Bear to Bull with ETFs. The eBook (ten bucks) is now available on Amazon.com. Paperbacks by month end and other channels of distribution like iBook and Nook are coming. Please note that profits from this book will be donated to the Global Interdependence Center.
History shows that ‘Sell in May and go away’ has applied when the Federal Reserve was in a tightened mode during the six-month span from May to November. If the Fed was actively raising interest rates, withdrawing or constricting credit, imposing additional reserve requirements, or taking an action that was of a tightening mode, stock markets were usually punished in that six-month period.
Re-Examining Central Bank Orthodoxy for Unorthodox Times: Inaugural Meeting of the Global Society of Fellows of the Global Interdependence Center
By Bill Witherell, Cumberland Advisors Chief Global Economist The title of this commentary may come as a surprise. Over the past year and a half, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has dominated European issues in the financial press. There has been little mention of the Central and Eastern Europe members of the […]
by Bill Witherell, Chief Global Economist, Cumberland Advisors One year ago the Japanese economy was dealt a devastating blow by a major earthquake and the resulting tsunami and nuclear crisis. In 2011 Japanese economic growth, as measured by real (constant-price) GDP, is estimated to have declined by almost 1%. There are indications the economy is […]
This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at he OECD in Paris. his bio is found on Cumberland’s homepage, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at [email protected] Last year’s series of disturbing shocks to the global economy and the willingness of global investors to take […]
by Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Taylor Somerville, CFA, Senior Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Vadim Sinitsyn, Associate Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Historically, economists have found that when a country’s per capita GDP exceeds $3,000 good things happen. Wealthier households begin to invest in durable goods, like automobiles […]