By Timothy Weckesser, Ph.D. & Yang Lin, Sino-Consulting We recently completed a comprehensive study of China’s electric vehicle industry which, we believe, presents a vivid example of what “industrial planning” means in that country. China’s economy is often a hard-to-define mixture of pure private enterprise and comprehensive central planning, as evidenced by the well-known Five-Year […]
The below editorial was published in the June 11, 2012 edition of the USA TODAY. The electronic version can be found here. by David Kotok Many analysts argue that the eurozone crisis will put the U.S. economy into a recession. They are wrong. Most fail to acknowledge the lessons learned by Americans during the last […]
by J. Paul Horne, Independent Market Economist* Europe must be grateful to Greece for dramatizing: how the Euro is fundamentally flawed; how the Euro’s failure could cause a financial-economic disaster; and how European Union (EU) leaders must, despite all their differences and electoral setbacks cooperate to avoid a Greek tragedy. This week will be crucial […]
By J. Paul Horne, Independent International Market Economist* Well, he’s in with nearly 52% of the popular vote as Sarkozy was rebuffed with barely 48%, only the second President of the Fifth Republic to be voted out after only one term, a major political reversal for the right. Sarko paid the price of the financial […]
The old adage “Sell in May and go away” was good guidance for stock markets last year. The market peaked on April 29 and bottomed on October 3. For a detailed discussion of this period and the subsequent bull-market recovery, see our new book From Bear to Bull with ETFs. The eBook (ten bucks) is now available on Amazon.com. Paperbacks by month end and other channels of distribution like iBook and Nook are coming. Please note that profits from this book will be donated to the Global Interdependence Center.
History shows that ‘Sell in May and go away’ has applied when the Federal Reserve was in a tightened mode during the six-month span from May to November. If the Fed was actively raising interest rates, withdrawing or constricting credit, imposing additional reserve requirements, or taking an action that was of a tightening mode, stock markets were usually punished in that six-month period.
By Bill Witherell, Cumberland Advisors Chief Global Economist The title of this commentary may come as a surprise. Over the past year and a half, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has dominated European issues in the financial press. There has been little mention of the Central and Eastern Europe members of the […]
by Bill Witherell, Chief Global Economist, Cumberland Advisors One year ago the Japanese economy was dealt a devastating blow by a major earthquake and the resulting tsunami and nuclear crisis. In 2011 Japanese economic growth, as measured by real (constant-price) GDP, is estimated to have declined by almost 1%. There are indications the economy is […]
This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at he OECD in Paris. his bio is found on Cumberland’s homepage, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at [email protected] Last year’s series of disturbing shocks to the global economy and the willingness of global investors to take […]
by Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Taylor Somerville, CFA, Senior Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Vadim Sinitsyn, Associate Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Historically, economists have found that when a country’s per capita GDP exceeds $3,000 good things happen. Wealthier households begin to invest in durable goods, like automobiles […]