GIC held a special College of Central Bankers Executive Briefing on October 21, 2021 exploring the CCB Inaugural Survey conducted among our Fellows earlier this year. Presenters included Don Rissmiller, Founding Partner of Strategas Research Partners, Marco Airaudo, Ph.D., Professor of Economics at Drexel University’s LeBow College of Business, Danny Blanchflower, Ph.D., Former Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, Charles Plosser, Ph.D., Former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, J. Paul Horne, Independent International Economist & GIC Board Member, and Peter Gold, Esq., Principal, TheGoldGroup LLC, GIC Vice Chair, and Chair of the College of Central Bankers.
GIC’s Executive Briefing, The Fed’s Evolving Role in the Financial System, took place on September 21, 2021 with presenter Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, moderator Lisa McIntire Shaw, Founding Partner of Cygnus Asset Management, LLC, please opening remarks by William Kennedy, GIC Vice Chair of Programs and Co-Founder, CEO and CIO of RiskBridge Advisors.
This panel is moderated by Barry Ritholtz, Chairman and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Our speakers are Constance Hunter, Principal and Chief Economist of KPMG, and Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International and GIC Board Member.
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Cumberland Advisors’ Chief Monetary Economist & Stephen Sexauer, Chief Investment Officer for SDCERA, converse about what impact the pandemic has had on the 16/17B pension fund Steve manages, the cash crunch, liquidity issues and buffers, and the maxim that you can never, ever miss payroll. Bob and Steve also talk about the taper tantrum, fixed income yields, risk, what mix in a portfolio makes sense, and they wrap it up by addressing, “is the pandemic driving early retirement?”
David R. Kotok & Pierce Nelson convene during a lunch break at Camp Kotok to discuss the CDC Foundation and its unique 501(c)(3) non-profit status and mission. Pierce details some of the emergency response work they do & how they can at times respond more rapidly than governments. They have been very active during the COVID pandemic working to bring public and private partnerships together to maximize the good that can be done.
At Camp Kotok 2021, Stu Hoffman relays comments from the Fed’s Vice Chairman: Will conditions to raise interest rates will be met by end of 2022? Contrast this with a Fed six months ago that indicated rates wouldn’t move until 2024. Inflation is also discussed with some color by Bob Eisenbeis and Stu Hoffman. Stu thinks early 2023 is time to raise rates and early 2022 may be when tapering of QE begins, with a goal of wrapping it up in 6-9 months.
Camp Kotok 2021 – David Kotok & Chris Whalen are back at Camp Kotok, held at Leen’s Lodge in Maine. They discuss the Group of 30 Report on Treasury Market disruptions, liquidity, banks, mortgage backed securities, bank earnings, net interest margins, “the spread is shrinking,” and more.