The British are leaving! The British are leaving! – Maybe. Friday provided a profound shock for the financial markets as the UK voted to leave the EU in the Brexit referendum. Over the past week, following the assassination of Labour MP Jo Cox, polls had shifted from favoring Leave to favoring Stay – right up until the last polls before voting. Indeed, even UKIP party leader Nigel Farage was indicating Thursday that Stay would scrape out a victory. The unexpectedness of the outcome generated substantial volatility and market angst in part because over optimism had led some to exit protective positions and they were forced to run to cover. What we learn from this is that predicting the future is never easy. Now economists have both weather forecasters and pollsters to joke about.
Before the Brexit vote and market turmoil I was privileged to share interview time on the “The Larry Kudlow Show,” hosted by Larry Kudlow, with a longtime friend, Jeff Kleintop of Schwab. Larry, Jeff, and I have had many discussions about markets and economics over the years. In addition to discussing the pros and cons […]
The June 23rd Vote That Has Global Markets on Edge Bill Witherell Chief Global Economist Cumberland Advisors Voters in Britain will be deciding next Thursday, “Should we stay, or should we leave?” – that is, should Britain exit the European Union (the option known as Brexit) or remain a member? Early polls indicated a sizable […]
I write as a follow-up to our South America trip. For a terrific summary of the Argentina-Uruguay experience, we offer the “Weekly Economic Update” from Michael Drury, GIC chairman and chief economist at MacVean. The report is available here: http://www.cumber.com/pdf/EU05-13-2016.pdf. We thank Michael for permission to link to his commentary. Meanwhile, the former president of Argentina […]