Postcard from Jackson Hole

RiskBridge made its annual trek to the Teton Economic Outlook in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where market participants and the intellectually curious gather to kick the tires of the economy, policy, and markets. This was the 13th year GIC hosted an event in the shadows of the Teton Mountains. RiskBridge was proud to co-sponsor the event with our partners from Strategas Research.

The symposium gathers economists, policymakers, allocators, fund managers, entrepreneurs, business owners, retirees, and media. It is a truly unique forum where Wall Street meets Main Street.

The GIC is an important organization dedicated to bringing together a global network of experts and members in neutral, nonpartisan forums to explore globally interdependent issues and policy themes impacting world economies and living standards. https://www.interdependence.org/

Key Takeaways

• Fed Independence Under Siege: Federal Reserve Board independence threats are not new. Today, the Fed faces internal threats from policy overreach and external political pressure, including a White House renovation probe targeting Chair Powell (Washington Post, 7/11/2025). While July’s FOMC meeting may proceed with some independence, by the Fed’s September meeting, there could be forced resignation efforts against Powell and the installation of a loyalty-tested replacement. The erosion of Fed autonomy and monetary policy independence threatens to amplify market uncertainty and interest rate volatility significantly.
• Immigration Policy Impact on Growth: 93 million Americans (28% of the population) are either immigrants (50 million; 15%) or US-born second-generation citizens (43 million; 13%). This includes an estimated 6 million recorded border crossings and a total (recorded and unrecorded) of 15 million from 2020 to 2024. The last time the US government addressed major immigration legislation was with the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), signed into law by President Reagan in 1986.
  Industries such as agriculture, food processing, and manufacturing often cannot find sufficient local labor, and there is a growing labor supply constraint for both low-skill and high-skill workers. Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas points to a notable positive impact on GDP growth and job creation due to four years of large-scale migration. The Dallas Fed contends that (1) slowing growth (not rising inflation) is the largest economic impact of immigration labor constraints, and (2) net immigrant flows/border crossings (not interior removals/arrests) have the biggest economic impact. The halt of immigrant flows at the border is expected to drag US real GDP growth by -0.8% in 2025-2026. Official stats on immigrant arrests are running 650 per day (240,000 per year) versus the administration’s announced goal of 3,000 per day (1 million per year).
• Stock Market Outlook: One speaker characterized this stock market as a “honey badger market,” where fearless market participants run headfirst into danger. Risk factors like tariffs, immigration policy, and slower growth forecasts are insufficient to dampen demand for stocks. While US equity valuations are stretched, rising forward earnings estimates and a general underweight in equity positioning by institutional investors are reasons to remain constructive on stocks. While the stock market appears robust, potential problems in private markets, shifting global investment flows, and lower yields could signal deteriorating economic prospects.
• Bond Market Outlook: While “the best rate call is no rate call” has worked in the first half of 2025, the panel continued to be in the higher yield camp, and we have likely not yet seen the cycle peak in yields. Tepid demand for Treasuries in Q2 may persist during 2H 2025, given deteriorating credit ratings and concerns around the growing Treasuries supply. There is an expectation that rate cuts will resume in September. Still, the shape of the yield curve (steepener vs. flattener) is uncertain until we know why the Fed is cutting (lower than expected tariff inflation vs. slowing growth). Nominal GDP growth of approximately 5% should favor free cash flow, debt interest coverage, and spreads. While spreads are near the top 5th percentile (spreads are wider 95% of the time), the panelists suggested further spread tightening is possible.
• The Top 1% of the Top 1%: Jonathan Schechter, a member of the Jackson Town Council, presented on the history of Jackson’s Hole and the local economy. According to the US Census Bureau, Teton County’s per capita income of $472,000 is 6.7 times greater than the national average of $70,000, driven by Wyoming’s extensive pro-wealth state legislation and trust laws. With roughly 97% of the county’s land held by the public, limited property availability for new development has dramatically driven up land and housing costs. The lack of housing affordability was confirmed by an Uber driver who said he pays $4,250 monthly for a two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment south of Jackson. He said, “There are two things you need to know about Jackson: the billionaires are buying out the millionaires, and I get to live in the most scenic poverty imaginable.”