Ukraine: One Year Later – Session III: Food, Famine, and Energy, plus the Effects of the War on Central Bank Policy and Financial Markets
Date: Thursday, March 23, 2023 - Friday, March 24, 2023
Virtual Event
$50.00 – $100.00
Register to join this virtual event!
Event Detail
Ukraine: One Year Later – Session III: Food, Famine, and Energy, plus the Effects of the War on Central Bank Policy and Financial Markets
Register to join Session III of GIC’s upcoming series, Ukraine: One Year Later. We invite you to join us virtually March 23-24, 2023 to explore U.S. and world bonds, world stock markets, food and famine, oil and gas, and how monetary policymakers deal with spillover effects from food, energy, and geopolitical shocks following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine through panels through two days of panel discussions.
This Session will consider the depth of market reactions in the world’s bond markets, stocks markets, and other markets of various types. Day two will dive deep into the food and famine outcomes inflicted by Putin’s war on the world and its implications. There will be an examination of the energy issues, including impacts on oil and gas and the market effects from this war. Lastly, Catherine L. Mann, Ph.D., Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, will discuss the spillover effects of the war on policymakers and offer observations as a sitting central banker. A former Polish central banker and World Bank executive will join the discussion. Bloomberg’s Michael McKee will join in moderating that discussion.
Ukraine: One Year Later is a four-part series examining the impact of the war in Ukraine hosted in partnership with the University of South Florida Sarasota Manatee, and the Florida West Coast Chapter of the Air and Space Forces Association. This hybrid series will take place virtually and in-person between February – April in 2023, and cover themes such as the military-geopolitical outlook, the financial-economic arena, implications on agriculture, cybersecurity, and world trade.
The conference series is co-chaired by Major General David Scott Gray, US Air Force (retired) and David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors. They are developing the program so it blends the finance and economics issues of Russia-Ukraine with the military and defense components. This is the second year of the series following a successful and quickly assembled first year held shortly after Russia invaded. The events will be held in-person at the Selby Auditorium at the University of South Florida Sarasota – Manatee and virtually via zoom.
Agenda
Thursday March 23, 2023
8:30 – 8:45 a.m. | Welcoming Remarks
- Karen Holbrook, Ph.D., Regional Chancellor, USFSM
- David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors and GIC Board Member
- Major General David Scott Gray, U.S. Air Force (Ret), Chair, President, and CEO of the Combat Wounded Veteran Challenge
8:45 – 9:45 a.m. | Session I: Reactions in World Bond Markets and U.S. Bond Markets
- Patricia Healy, CFA, Senior Vice President of Research and Portfolio Manager, Cumberland Advisors
- Michael Lee, Founder, Michael Lee Strategy
- Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities
- Moderator: Alison Gardner, Senior Vice President, Sage Advisors/Mass Mutual
9:45 – 10:30 a.m. | Session II: Reactions in World Stock Markets in U.S., Europe, Russia, and Other Countries
- Doug Ramsey, CIO, The Leuthold Group, LLC
- Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer, WisdomTree Asset Management
- Todd Engelhardt, Regional Director of Investments, Cumberland Advisors
- Moderator: Thomas Smith, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Grant Thornton Fellow, University of South Florida
10:30 – 10:45 a.m. | Break
10:45 – 11:15 a.m. | Keynote I: Is Globalization in Retreat? Implications for the US Economy
- Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Managing Director and Chief Economist, Wells Fargo
- Moderator: Kiyoung Chang, Ph.D., Professor, Muma College of Business, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee
11:15 – 11:45 a.m. | Special Report: Sanctions on Russia’s Trade
- Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist, Institute of International Finance
11:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. | Keynote II: A Global Perspective
- William Kennedy, Board Chair, Global Interdependence Center, and CIO, RiskBridge Advisors LLC
- Moderator: David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
12:15 p.m. | Concluding Remarks
- David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors and GIC Board Member
Friday, March 24, 2023
8:30 – 8:45 a.m. | Welcoming Remarks
- Karen Holbrook, Ph.D., Regional Chancellor, USFSM
- David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors and GIC Board Member
- Major General David Scott Gray, U.S. Air Force (Ret), Chair, President, and CEO of the Combat Wounded Veteran Challenge
8:45 – 9:30 a.m. | Session I: Food and Famine Panel
- Seth Meyer, Ph.D., Chief Economist, USDA
- Brandon Zick, CIO, Ceres Partners, LLC
- John Newton, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Committee on Agriculture, United States Senate
- Moderator: William Kennedy, GIC Board Chair and CEO, RiskBridge Advisors, LLC
9:30 – 10:15 a.m. | Session II: Oil and Gas Panel
- James Slutz, Director of Study Operations, National Petroleum Council
- Christine Tezak, Managing Director – Research, ClearView Energy Partners, LLC
- Moderator: Todd Engelhardt, Regional Director of Investments, Cumberland Advisors
10:15 – 10:30 a.m. | Break
10:30 – 11:30 a.m. | Session III: How do Monetary Policy Makers Deal with Spillover Effects from Food, Energy, and Geopolitical (War?) Shocks that are Beyond the Policy Makers’ Control?
- Catherine L. Mann, Ph.D., Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
- Katarzyna M. Zajdel-Kurowska, Former Member of the Management Board of the National Bank of Poland and Fellow of GIC College of Central Bankers
- Moderator: Michael McKee, International Economics and Politics Correspondent, Bloomberg Radio/TV
11:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | Bank Panic and Lessons from History
- Joseph Mason, Ph.D., Professor of Finance at Louisiana State University and Senior Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and an Academic Affiliate at the BVA Group
- David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors and GIC Board Member
12:00 p.m. | Concluding Remarks
- David R. Kotok, Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors and GIC Board Member
Event Location
Speakers
Jay Bryson, Ph.D.
Managing Director and Chief Economist, Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment BankJay Bryson is a Managing Director and the Chief Economist for Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank, a position he has held since August 2018. In this role, Jay leads the Economics Group, which provides analysis on economic and financial developments in the major economies of the world as well as forecasts of macroeconomic variables in these economies.
Kiyoung Chang, Ph.D.
Professor, Muma College of Business, University of South Florida Sarasota-ManateeDr. Kiyoung Chang is born in Republic of Korea and received his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He is currently teaching advanced corporate finance and principles of finance at University of South Florida (USF).
Todd Engelhardt
Regional Director of Investments, Cumberland AdvisorsTodd Engelhardt serves as Regional Director of Investments for Southwest Florida. He is responsible for Cumberland Advisors’ service to individuals, institutions, retirement plans, and government entities. Todd has over 30 years of investment management experience.
Alison Gardner
Senior Vice President – Financial Advisor, RBC Wealth ManagementAlison Gardner has enjoyed 35 years in the financial services industry. She is Senior Vice President in the Wealth Management division and, as a Senior Portfolio Manager, utilizes quality fundamentals with a rules-based technical overlay for performance, risk management and to remove emotion. She maintains a rigorous focus on both analytics and investment knowledge.
Major General Scott Gray
U.S. Air Force (Ret), Chair, President, and CEO of the Combat Wounded Veteran ChallengeMajor General Scott Gray, USAF, (Ret) has held numerous staff positions at the numbered air force, major command, Air Staff, Secretary of the Air Force and Joint Chiefs of Staff levels, and has commanded in support and operational organizations.
Patricia Healy
Senior Vice President of Research, Cumberland AdvisorsPatty Healy serves as Senior Vice President of Research. She provides integral market and individual credit research and insight while serving as a member of the team managing the fixed-income strategies. Patty joined the firm in 2016.
Karen Holbrook, Ph.D.
Regional Chancellor, USF Sarasota-ManateeKaren A. Holbrook, Ph.D., is the Regional Chancellor at USF Sarasota-Manatee, following a year as the Interim President for Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Before assuming the position at Embry-Riddle she worked as a higher education consultant and the Senior Advisor to the President at the University of South Florida, where she was, until recently, the Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation then Senior Vice President for Global Affairs and International Research.
William Kennedy
GIC Board Chair and CEO, RiskBridge Advisors, LLCWilliam Kennedy is the co-founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of RiskBridge Advisors, an independent, full-service investment office serving insurers, endowments and foundations, and individual investors. He is responsible for RiskBridge’s business and investment activities and has over 30 years of capital market research and investment experience.
David Kotok
Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland AdvisorsDavid Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio, Yahoo Finance TV, and other media.
Michael Lee
Founder, Michael Lee StrategyMichael Lee is the founder of Michael Lee Strategy, an investment management and wealth planning firm. A 20+-year veteran of the financial services industry, he is one of the most sought-after voices in the industry.
Catherine L. Mann, Ph.D.
Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of EnglandDr Catherine L Mann joined the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England on 1 September 2021. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the American Economic Association, among others. Previously she was Chair of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
Joseph Mason, Ph.D.
Professor of Finance at Louisiana State University and Senior Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and an Academic Affiliate at the BVA GroupDr. Mason studies the dynamics of risk and financial crises. Dr. Mason has published more than twenty academic articles and numerous book chapters and shorter works. His academic work was the first to show that bank failures in crisis periods may not have been either irrational or particularly costly to economic growth since the banks that failed in that period were, in large part, already severely impaired. His work also demonstrates that while low interest rates help in the midst of a financial crisis, holding interest rates down post-crisis can substantially delay economic recovery.
Michael McKee
International Economics and Politics Correspondent, Bloomberg Radio/TVMichael McKee is the International Economics and Policy Correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Radio, covering market and political developments, economic trends and central banks in the United States and around the globe.
Seth Meyer, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, U.S. Department of AgricultureDr. Seth Meyer was appointed USDA’s Chief Economist in January of 2021, returning to USDA after two years. Prior to his return, Seth was a Research Professor and the Associate Director for the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.
John Newton, Ph.D.
Chief Economist at U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition & ForestryDr. Newton is the former Chief Economist for American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest organization of independent farmers in the United States. In this role, Dr. Newton was responsible for the management of Farm Bureau’s economics department and coordinates and conducts analyses used for the development and advocacy of Farm Bureau policy on Capitol Hill.
Doug Ramsey
Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLCDoug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund.
Elina Ribakova
Deputy Chief Economist, Institute of International FinanceElina Ribakova directs the IIF’s economic research on emerging markets. Ms. Ribakova was previously a visiting fellow at Bruegel, where her research focused on financial markets, EMs, and central banks.
Jeremy Schwartz
Global Chief Investment Officer, WisdomTreeJeremy Schwartz has served as our Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads WisdomTree’s investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset model portfolios.
Jim Slutz
Director of Study Operations for the National Petroleum Council (NPC)Jim Slutz is the Director of Study Operations for the National Petroleum Council (NPC), an independent federal advisory committee to the United States, reporting to the Secretary of Energy. Prior to NPC, Jim led a global consulting practice with projects in North America, Asia, and Europe.
Tom Smith, Ph.D.
Associate Professor, Grant Thornton Fellow, University of South FloridaTom Smith is the Grant Thornton Professor, teaching intermediate financial accounting and a PhD seminar in archival accounting. He was awarded the Lynn Pippenger School of Accountancy Advisory Council Outstanding Teaching Award in 2016 and in 2020, he was the recipient of the USF Outstanding Undergraduate Teaching Award.
Peter Tchir
Head of Macro Strategy, Academy SecuritiesAcademy Security’s Macro Strategy department is led by Peter Tchir and is designed to help companies and investors navigate markets and the economy by creating content that analyzes developments in a provocative way.
Christine Tezak
Managing Director, ClearView Energy Partners, LLCChristine Tezak is a veteran energy analyst who leads ClearView’s coverage of electricity markets, interstate pipelines, energy infrastructure and U.S. environmental policy.
Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska
Alternate Executive Director at the World Bank GroupKatarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska serves as Alternate Executive Director at the World Bank Group since June 1, 2018, representing Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Poland, Serbia, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Brandon Zick
Chief Investment Officer, Ceres PartnersBrandon Zick joined Ceres Partners in 2010. He is responsible for managing all investments at Ceres, including farmland and private equity strategies. In this role he supervises valuation analysis, acquisition due diligence, tenant management and acquisition negotiations.
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