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Re-Examining Central Bank Orthodoxy for Unorthodox Times: Inaugural Meeting of The Global Society of Fellows

Monday, March 26, 2012
Banque de France, Galerie doree, 3 rue de La Vrillière
Paris, France

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Event Detail

Re-Examining Central Bank Orthodoxy for Unorthodox Times: Inaugural Meeting of The Global Society of Fellows

Join GIC and the Banque de France for the first program in our 2012 Abroad series!

This program will be the inaugural event of the Global Society of Fellows, a group of scholars and industry leaders dedicated to engaging policymakers and academics globally to dialogue and identify solutions to pressing economic issues. The conference will include the presentation of two policy papers, Does Central Bank Independence Interfere with Pursuing an Optimal Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap?, written by Paul McCulley, Chairman of the GIC Global Society of Fellows, and Are Central Banks Innocent Bystanders in Wealth and Income Distribution Outcomes?, written by John Silvia, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo.

Agenda

 Monday, March 26th: Full Day Conference

Banque de France, Galerie dorée • Guests enter at 3 rue de La Vrillière

8:30 am – 9:00 am          Registration

9:00 am – 9:15 am           Welcome
Christian Noyer, Governor, Banque de France
David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

9:15 am – 9:30 am           Induction Ceremony – GIC Global Society of Fellows
Paul McCulley, Chair, Global Society of Fellows
John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo

9:30 am – 10:30 am       Session I: “Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap?”
Moderator: Consuelo Mack, Anchor and Managing Editor, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack
Author: Paul McCulley, Chair, Global Society of Fellows
Co-Author: Zoltan Pozsar, Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Martin Sandbu, Economics Leader Writer, Financial Times

10:30 am – 10:45 am         Coffee Break

10:45 am – 11:45 am      Session II: “Are Central Banks Innocent Bystanders in Wealth and Income Distribution
Outcomes?”
Moderator: Mike McKee, Economics Editor, Bloomberg
Author: John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo
Co-Author: Olivier Coibion, Assistant Professor, College of William and Mary
Discussant: Pierre Jaillet, Director General, Economics and International Relations, Banque de France

11:45 am – 12:00 pm         Coffee Break


12:00 pm – 12:30 pm   Keynote, “Time Travel in the Minsky Moment”
Bill Miller, CFA, Chairman, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Legg Mason Capital Management

12:30 pm – 1:30 pm      LUNCH

1:30 pm – 3:00 pm        Session III: Monetary Policy Issues
Moderator: Julian Callow, Managing Director & Chief European Economist, Barclays Capital
Participant: Charles Plosser, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Participant: Axel Weber, former President, Deutsche Bundesbank and Visiting Professor, Booth School of
Business at the University of Chicago
Participant: Christian Noyer, Governor, Banque de France

3:00 pm – 3:15 pm           Coffee Break

3:15 pm – 4:45 pm       Session IV: Investment
Moderator: William Clark, Senior VP & CIO, Federal Reserve Office of Employee Benefits
Participant: Josh Rosner, Managing Director, Graham Fisher & Co.
“US Federal Agency Debt: To Buy or Not to Buy”
Participant: Peter Demirali, Managing Director, Cumberland Advisors
“US State and Local Government Bonds: Where are We Now?”
Participant: Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading & Investments
“Some Thoughts About Commodities”
Participant: Steve Sexauer, Chief Investment Officer, Allianz Global Investors Solutions
“Outlook for Global Equity Markets”

4:45 pm – 5:00 pm     Conclusion
David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

Tuesday, March 27th: Private Roundtable Discussion and Lunch
*Registration is no longer being accepted for this portion of the conference*
Cercle de l’Union interalliée
Held under Chatham House Rule, the Private Roundtable Discussion has become a hallmark of GIC’s international conferences.

Welcome
David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

Session I: Designing the Brady Bond as a Eurozone Sovereign Debt Instrument
Moderator: David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair
Participant: Michael Dooley, Chief Economist and Partner, Cabezon Investment Group

Session II: Euro System Debts and Greece
Moderator: Bob Eisenbeis, Chief Monetary Economist, Cumberland Advisors
Participant: John Whittaker, Visiting Fellow, Lancaster University Management School
Participant: Alfonso Prat-Gay, Member of Congress and former Governor, Central Bank of Argentina

Session III: Impact of the Eurozone Debt Crisis on My Area/Organization/Country
Moderator: J. Paul Horne, Independent International Economist & GIC Board Member
Participant: Germany: Hans-Helmut Kotz, Visiting Scholar, Harvard Center for European Studies
Participant: Finland: Antti Suvanto, Head of General Secretariat, Bank of Finland
Participant: Spain: Elena Nieto, Director, CEMEX
Participant: France: Denis Beau, Banque de France
Participant: United States: Rajeev Dahwan, Professor and Director of Economic Forecasting Center, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University

Event Location

Date: Monday, March 26, 2012 City: Paris Banque de France, Galerie doree Download iCal

Additional Event Location

Cercle de l'Union interalliee

Speakers

Paul McCulley

Senior Fellow, Financial Macroeconomics, Cornell Law School's Jack G. Clarke Program on the Law and Regulation of Financial Institutions and Markets

Paul McCulley is Senior Fellow in Financial Macroeconomics for Cornell Law School’s Jack G. Clarke Program on the Law and Regulation of Financial Institutions and Markets. Prior, he was the Chief Economist and Managing Director at PIMCO where he served as a member of the Investment Committee in Newport Beach, and authoring the publication, Macro Perspectives.

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John E. Silvia, Ph.D.

Managing Director, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

John Silvia is a managing director and the chief economist for Wells Fargo. Based in Charlotte, N.C., he has held his position since he joined Wachovia in 2002 as the company’s chief economist.

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Christian Noyer

Former Governor, Banque de France

Christian Noyer was born in 1950 near Paris. After obtaining a Bachelor of Laws (LL.B.), he received a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from the Paris Institute of Political Studies (“Sciences Po”). He then joined the Ecole Nationale d’Administration (ENA), of which he is a graduate.

He entered the French Treasury in 1976, and spent two years in 1980-82 in Brussels as a financial attache at the French Delegation to the European Union. Back at the Treasury, he held various positions, dealing both with domestic and international affairs, and was appointed Director of the Treasury in 1993. He also served as an adviser to Mr .Balladur, then Minister of Finance, in 1986-88, and as chief of staff to two other Finance Ministers in 1993 and 1995-97. He was then appointed Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1998, when the Bank was set-up in Frankfurt, where he served until 2002. He was Governor of the Banque de France from November 2003 until November 2015. He was also elected Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) from 2010 until 2015.

Zoltan Pozsar

Senior Adviser, U.S. Department of the Treasury

Zoltan Pozsar, a senior adviser at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is an expert on global macroeconomic affairs, central banking and finance.

At Treasury, Mr. Pozsar is responsible for developing the framework to monitor risk and collateral intermediation activities in the financial eco-system and evaluate their impact on macro-financial conditions. He also serves as Treasury’s liaison to the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on matters of financial innovation.

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Olivier Coibion, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor at the University of Texas, Austin

Olivier (Oli) Coibion is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas, Austin and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has also worked at the the College of William and Mary, Brookings Institution and the Council of Economic Advisors, and he has been a consultant to the International Monetary Fund.

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Hans-Helmut Kotz

Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Center for European Studies

Hans-Helmut Kotz is a visiting scholar at Harvard’s Center for European Studies. He is also a senior fellow at Goethe University’s Center for Financial Studies, chairing Research Advisory Council, as well as a member of the economics faculty at Freiburg University.

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Axel A. Weber

Chairman of the Board of Directors, UBS Group AG

Axel A. Weber was elected to the Board of Directors (BoD) of UBS AG at the 2012 AGM and of UBS Group AG in November 2014. He is Chairman of the BoD of both UBS AG and UBS Group AG. He has chaired the Governance and Nominating Committee since 2012 and became Chairperson of the Corporate Culture and Responsibility Committee in 2013.

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David Kotok

CIO of Cumberland Advisors

David R. Kotok cofounded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its chief investment officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a master’s in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania.

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Mike McKee

International Economics and Politics Correspondent, Bloomberg Radio/TV

Michael McKee is the International Economics and Policy Correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Radio, covering market and political developments, economic trends and central banks in the United States and around the globe.

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Charles I. Plosser, Ph.D.

Board Member, FINRA and Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Dr. Charles Plosser was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In this role, he participated on the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for conducting our nation’s monetary policy. He currently serves on the FINRA Board of Governors.

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Josh Rosner

Managing Director, Graham Fisher & Co.

Josh Rosner is co-author of the New York Times Bestseller “Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon,” and managing director at independent research consultancy Graham Fisher & Co.

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Stephen Sexauer

Chief Investment Officer, The San Diego County Employees Retirement Association

Stephen Sexauer is the chief investment officer of The San Diego County Employees Retirement Association (SDCERA), a $10 billion public pension fund. Mr. Sexauer oversees SDCERA’s public and private investments, investment team and investment consultants. In addition to the day-to-day operation of SDCERA’s investments division, he play an important role in assisting the Board with determining the fund’s investment policies, strategy and asset allocation.

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Manuel Balmaseda

Chief Economist, CEMEX

Manuel Balmaseda is the Chief Economist at CEMEX, a leading global building materials corporation. Previously he served as Chief Economist for Spain and Europe at BBVA, Chief Economist for Capital Markets at BBV, professor of economics at CEMFI and visiting researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis.

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John Whittaker, Ph.D.

Visiting Fellow, Lancaster University Management School

John Whittaker is an economist at Lancaster University, specializing in monetary policy. After an earlier career in business, he obtained a doctorate in nuclear physics before joining the academic world in the 1980s.

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Peter Demirali

Managing Director, Cumberland Advisors

Peter Demirali joined Cumberland Advisors in 2002 as Portfolio Manager for the Taxable Bond style, and became a Managing Director in 2011. Mr. Demirali was a Senior Portfolio Manager at Smith Barney Asset Management from 1990 to 1999. In that position, he initiated a corporate bond component for taxable fixed-income portfolios.

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Rajeev Dhawan, Ph.D.

Carl R. Zwerner Chair of Economic Forecasting and Director, Economic Forecasting Center, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University

Professor Rajeev Dhawan wears a dual hat as holder of the Zwerner Chair of Economic Forecasting and as Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University in Atlanta, Georgia. As director of one of the country’s premiere forecasting centers, Dhawan develops forecasts for the U.S., Southeast regional and local metro Atlanta economies.

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Julian Callow

Economist, Element Capital Management

Julian Callow is Managing Director responsible for European and Chinese economic research at Element Capital LLC. Prior to that he was a Managing Director for Research at Barclays, including being Chief European Economist (2003-2012) & Chief Global Economist (2012-2014). He was also Chief Eurozone Economist at Credit Suisse (1999-03), & has also worked as an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, Chase (1990-92) & the Bank of England (1987-90).

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William Clark

Senior VP & CIO, Federal Reserve Office of Employee Benefits

William G. Clark has directed the investments for the Federal Reserve’s defined benefit and defined contribution plans since March 2010. In total, the plans have approximately $12 billion in assets under management and cover approximately 30,000 participants.

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Bill Miller, CFA

Chairman, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager

Bill Miller is the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Legg Mason Capital Management. He also currently serves as the portfolio manager for the Value Trust and Opportunity Trust mutual funds. Mr. Miller assumed overall responsibility for the equity funds management area of Legg Mason in late 1990.

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Michael Dooley, Ph.D.

Chief Economist and Partner, Cabezon Investment Group

Chief Economist and Partner, Cabezon Investment Group

Michael Dooley is Chief Economist and Partner at Cabezon Investment Group and Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and is a Managing Editor of the International Journal of Finance and Economics.

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Consuelo Mack

Author and Managing Editor, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack on Public Television

Consuelo Mack has a long and distinguished career in business journalism. In 2005 she struck out on her own to launch her dream program, a weekly half-hour program on public television devoted to helping Americans build and protect their wealth over the long-term. Now in its seventh season, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack has been dubbed the “Cramer Antidote” by the press and Money Magazine name Mack “The Best Money TV Host.” WealthTrack is the only program on television devoted to long-term diversified investing in all of the investments people care about: stocks, bonds, real estate, insurance, art and collectibles.

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Alfonso Prat-Gay

Former Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina

Alfonso Prat-Gay is the president of Andares, an NGO devoted to the development of microfinance and Chairman of Tilton Capital, an asset management company based in Buenos Aires.

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Denis Beau

Director General, Operations, Banque de France

Denis Beau is the director general of operations and a member of the Executive Committee of Banque de France. He co-chairs the French SEPA Committee and participates in a number of bodies both at national and international levels. Born in 1962, he joined Banque de France in 1986 after graduating from l’Institut d’Etudes Politiques in Paris. He subsequently received a master’s degree in business administration from INSEAD. He also served at the Bank for International Settlements as secretary of the G10 Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems.

Martin Sandbu, Ph.D.

Economics Lead Writer, Financial Times

Martin Sandbu is the economics leader writer for the Financial Times. He has been a senior research fellow at the Zicklin Center for Business Ethics Research at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and a postdoctoral research fellow at the Earth Institute, Columbia University. Sandbu has written and lectured widely on economic policy, economic development and natural resources, business ethics, and political philosophy.

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