Home   Re-Examining Central Bank Orthodoxy for Unorthodox Times: Inaugural Meeting of The Global Society of Fellows

Re-Examining Central Bank Orthodoxy for Unorthodox Times: Inaugural Meeting of The Global Society of Fellows

Date: Monday, March 26, 2012 - Tuesday, March 27, 2012

City: Paris, France

Paris
The Global Society of Fellows is a group of scholars dedicated to engaging policymakers and academics globally to dialogue and identify solutions to pressing economic issues.

$100.00 - $350.00

Event Details

Join GIC and the Banque de France for the first program in our 2012 Abroad series!

This program will be the inaugural event of the Global Society of Fellows, a group of scholars and industry leaders dedicated to engaging policymakers and academics globally to dialogue and identify solutions to pressing economic issues. The conference will include the presentation of two policy papers, Does Central Bank Independence Interfere with Pursuing an Optimal Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap?, written by Paul McCulley, Chairman of the GIC Global Society of Fellows, and Are Central Banks Innocent Bystanders in Wealth and Income Distribution Outcomes?, written by John Silvia, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo.

Agenda

 Monday, March 26th: Full Day Conference

Banque de France

8:30 am – 9:00 am          Registration

9:00 am – 9:15 am           Welcome
Christian Noyer, Governor, Banque de France
David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

9:15 am – 9:30 am           Induction Ceremony – GIC Global Society of Fellows
Paul McCulley, Chair, Global Society of Fellows
John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo

9:30 am – 10:30 am       Session I: “Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap?”
Moderator: Consuelo Mack, Anchor and Managing Editor, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack
Author: Paul McCulley, Chair, Global Society of Fellows
Co-Author: Zoltan Pozsar, Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Gillian Tett, US Managing Editor and Assistant Editor, Financial Times

10:30 am – 10:45 am         Coffee Break

10:45 am – 11:45 am      Session II: “Are Central Banks Innocent Bystanders in Wealth and Income Distribution
Outcomes?”
Moderator: Mike McKee, Economics Editor, Bloomberg
Author: John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo
Co-Author: Olivier Coibion, Assistant Professor, College of William and Mary
Discussant: Pierre Jaillet, Director General, Economics and International Relations, Banque de France

11:45 am – 12:00 pm         Coffee Break


12:00 pm – 12:30 pm   Keynote, “Time Travel in the Minsky Moment”
Bill Miller, CFA, Chairman, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Legg Mason Capital Management

12:30 pm – 1:30 pm      LUNCH

1:30 pm – 3:00 pm        Session III: Monetary Policy Issues
Moderator: Julian Callow, Managing Director & Chief European Economist, Barclays Capital
Participant: Charles Plosser, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Participant: Axel Weber, former President, Deutsche Bundesbank and Visiting Professor, Booth School of
Business at the University of Chicago
Participant: Christian Noyer, Governor, Banque de France

3:00 pm – 3:15 pm           Coffee Break

3:15 pm – 4:45 pm       Session IV: Investment
Moderator: William Clark, Senior VP & CIO, Federal Reserve Office of Employee Benefits
Participant: Josh Rosner, Managing Director, Graham Fisher & Co.
“US Federal Agency Debt: To Buy or Not to Buy”
Participant: Peter Demirali, Managing Director, Cumberland Advisors
“US State and Local Government Bonds: Where are We Now?”
Participant: Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading & Investments
“Some Thoughts About Commodities”
Participant: Steve Sexauer, Chief Investment Officer, Allianz Global Investors Solutions
“Outlook for Global Equity Markets”

4:45 pm – 5:00 pm     Conclusion
David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

Tuesday, March 27th: Private Roundtable Discussion and Lunch
Cercle de l’Union interalliée
Held under Chatham House Rule, the Private Roundtable Discussion has become a hallmark of GIC’s international conferences.

Welcome
David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

Session I: Designing the Brady Bond as a Eurozone Sovereign Debt Instrument
Moderator: David Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair
Participant: Michael Dooley, Chief Economist and Partner, Cabezon Investment Group

Session II: Euro System Debts and Greece
Moderator: Bob Eisenbeis, Chief Monetary Economist, Cumberland Advisors
Participant: John Whittaker, Visiting Fellow, Lancaster University Management School
Participant: Alfonso Prat-Gay, Chairman, Tilton Capital and President, Fundación Argentina para el desarrollo de las Microfinanzas

Session III: Impact of the Eurozone Debt Crisis on My Area/Organization/Country
Moderator: J. Paul Horne, Independent International Economist & GIC Board Member
Participant: Germany: Hans-Helmut Kotz, Visiting Scholar, Harvard Center for European Studies
Participant: Finland: Antti Suvanto, Head of General Secretariat, Bank of Finland
Participant: Spain: Manuel Balmaseda, Chief Economist, CEMEX
Participant: France: Denis Beau, Banque de France
Participant: Italy: Riccardo Perrisch, Executive Director, Council for United States and Italy
Participant: United States: Rajeev Dahwan, Professor and Director of Economic Forecasting Center, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University

Event Location

Date: Monday, March 26, 2012 - Tuesday, March 27, 2012
City: Paris, France

Banque de France

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Speaker Bios

Paul McCulley

Paul McCulley

Chair, GIC Global Society of Fellows

Paul McCulley is Chairman of the Society of Fellows of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Society, founded in late 2010, is an evolving work, with its inaugural event slated for Spring 2012.

Prior to endowing the Society and becoming its first Chair, Paul was a senior partner at PIMCO, the world’s premier fixed income investment advisory firm, where he was a member of the Investment Committee from its inception, manager of multi-billion dollar portfolios and founding author of the research publication, Global Central Bank Focus

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John E. Silvia, Ph.D.

Managing Director, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

John Silvia is a managing director and the chief economist for Wells Fargo. Based in Charlotte, N.C., he has held his position since he joined Wachovia in 2002 as the company’s chief economist.

Prior to his current position, John worked on Capitol Hill as a senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. Before that, he was chief economist of Kemper Funds and managing director of Scudder Kemper Investments, Inc.

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noyer

Christian Noyer

Governor, Banque de France

Christian Noyer has been Governor of the Banque de France since November 2003. In November 2009, he was reappointed for a second six-year term. He is a member of the Governing Council and General Council of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Christian Noyer was born on 6 October 1950 in Soisy-sous-Montmorency, near Paris. He studied law and subsequently graduated from the Institut d’études politiques de Paris and the École nationale d’administration.

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zpozsar

Zoltan Pozsar

Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund

Zoltan Pozsar is a visiting scholar at the IMF, where he works on policy proposals to regulate the shadow banking system from a macro-prudential perspective. Prior to the IMF, Mr. Pozsar was with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Markets Desk where he led the Bank’s efforts to map and monitor the shadow banking system.

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oliviercoibion

Olivier Coibion

Assistant Professor, College of William and Mary

Olivier (Oli) Coibion is an assistant professor of Economics at the College of William and Mary and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has also worked at the Brookings Institution and the Council of Economic Advisors and has been a consultant to the International Monetary Fund.

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Kotz

Hans-Helmut Kotz

Visiting Scholar, Harvard Center for European Studies

Hans-Helmut Kotz is a Visiting Scholar at Harvard’s Center for European Studies. He is also a Senior Fellow at Goethe University’s Center for Financial Studies, chairing Research Advisory Council, as well as a member of the Economics Faculty, Freiburg University.

Before, he was on the Board of Deutsche Bundesbank, in charge of Financial Stability, Markets and Statistics. He was a member of committees of the BIS, the FSB and OECD, chairing the Financial Markets Committee, as well as Central Bank Deputy for the G7 and G20 process. He has published in the Revue d’Economie Financière, Kredit und Kapital and Intereconomics. His research focuses on financial stability and the politics of international rule making.

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Axel A. Weber

Former President, Deutsche Bundesbank and Visiting Professor, Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago

Axel A. Weber is currently a Visiting Professor at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. He is nominated for election to UBS Board of Directors in 2012, initially serving as non-independent Vice-Chairman, and to be appointed Chairman of UBS in 2013.

Axel A. Weber was the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank between April 2001 and April 2011. In recent years he has also acted as a member of the steering committee of the European Systemic Risk Board and as a member of the steering committee of the Financial Stability Board. In addition, he has served as the German Governor of the International Monetary Fund, as a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and as a member of the G7 and the G20 Ministers and Governors.

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David Kotok

CIO, Cumberland Advisors & GIC Vice Chair

David R. Kotok cofounded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a masters in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania.

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Mike McKee

Economics Editor, Bloomberg

Michael McKee is co-host of “Bloomberg on the Economy” on Bloomberg Radio and economics editor for Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg News. As the economics editor for Bloomberg Television, McKee provides “The McKee Note,” keeping viewers up to date on market and political developments, economic trends and central banks in the U.S. and around the world. McKee also regularly contributes to Bloomberg Businessweek and Bloomberg Markets magazine.

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Charles I. Plosser

President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Dr. Charles Plosser is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In his current role, he participates on the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for conducting our nation’s monetary policy.

Dr. Plosser joined the Philadelphia Fed in 2006. During his term, he and his colleagues have faced the challenges of a global financial crisis followed by a severe recession. The Federal Reserve took unprecedented actions, in both monetary policy and in its lending operations, that helped mitigate the effects of the financial crisis and address deteriorating economic growth.

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Josh Rosner

Managing Director, Graham Fisher & Co.

Joshua Rosner is Managing Director at independent research consultancy Graham Fisher & Co and advises regulators and institutional investors on housing and mortgage finance issues. Previously he was the Managing Director of financial services research for Medley Global Advisors and was an Executive Vice President at CIBC World Markets. Mr. Rosner was among the first analysts to identify operational and accounting problems at the Government Sponsored Enterprises and one of the earliest in identifying the peak in the housing market, the likelihood of contagion in credit markets and the weaknesses in the credit rating agencies CDO assumptions.

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Stephen Sexauer

Chief Investment Officer, Allianz Global Investors Solutions

Stephen Sexauer has been the Chief Investment Officer of AGI Solutions since inception in June, 2008, and has been a Managing Director of Allianz Global Investors of America LLC or one of its subsidiaries since May, 2003. Mr. Sexauer has overall responsibility for all investment functions at AGI Solutions and is directly responsible for portfolio risk profiles, asset allocation and fund selection. Mr. Sexauer is also a member of the AGI Fund Management Board. Prior to Allianz, Mr. Sexauer was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management from July 1989-March 2002. Mr Sexauer worked at Salomon Brothers from November 1986-June 1989. Mr. Sexauer previously worked in Economic Consulting at Merrill Lynch Economics and at Wharton Econometrics. Mr. Sexauer holds an MBA from the University of Chicago with concentrations in economics and statistics and a BS from the University of Illinois in economics.

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Manuel Balmaseda

Chief Economist, CEMEX

Dr. Balmaseda has impressive credentials, collaborating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Previously, he served as chief economist at BBVA, the multinational banking giant, and currently teaches macroeconomics at the International Graduate School of Management of Barcelona and Madrid. As global chief economist, he influences business decision at CEMEX, widely known as a leader in supplying building materials and related services. CEMEX operates in more than 50 countries across five continents.

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John Whittaker

Visiting Fellow, Lancaster University Management School

John Whittaker is an economist at Lancaster University, specializing in monetary policy. After an earlier career in business, he obtained a doctorate in Nuclear Physics before joining the academic world in the 1980s. His research and teaching experience includes money and banking, macroeconomics and financial economics and he has published papers on alternative monetary regimes and mathematical economics. Current interests are sovereign debt problems in the eurozone, and the response of policy and regulation to the financial crisis and the recession. From 2004 to 2009 he was a Member of the European Parliament for the North West of England, representing the UK Independence Party.

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Peter Demirali

Managing Director, Cumberland Advisors

Peter Demirali joined Cumberland Advisors in 2002 as Portfolio Manager for the Taxable Bond style, and became a Managing Director in 2011. Mr. Demirali was a Senior Portfolio Manager at Smith Barney Asset Management from 1990 to 1999. In that position, he initiated a corporate bond component for taxable fixed-income portfolios.

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Rajeev Dhawan

Professor and Director of Economic Forecasting Center, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University

Rajeev Dhawan wears a dual hat as a professor and as director of the Economic Forecasting Center at the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University in Atlanta, Georgia. As director of one of the country’s premier forecasting centers, Dhawan develops forecasts for the U.S., Southeast regional, and local metro Atlanta economies. These forecasts are regularly published and presented to business executives and the media at the center’s popular, well-respected quarterly forecasting conferences. Dhawan has received several awards for his forecasting accuracy, including most accurate GDP forecast by Bloomberg News in 2005. The Bank One Economic Outlook Center at Arizona State University in 2003 named him the most accurate forecaster for US employment.

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Julian-Callow

Julian Callow

Managing Director and Chief European Economist Barclays Capital

Julian Callow is a Managing Director and, from July 2011, Head of International Economics and Co-Head of European Economics at Barclays Capital, based in London (previously he was Chief European Economist for BarCap since 2003).

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william-clark

William Clark

Senior VP & CIO, Federal Reserve Office of Employee Benefits

William G. Clark has directed the investments for the Federal Reserve’s defined benefit and defined contribution plans since March 2010. In total, the plans have approximately $12 billion in assets under management and cover approximately 30,000 participants.

Prior to that, Mr. Clark oversaw the investments and operations of the New Jersey pension fund since March 2005. Prior to that, he served as Deputy Director from 1999 – 2005. One of the nation’s 15 largest public funds, the New Jersey pension fund provides retirement benefits for more than 700,000 current and future public retirees in seven public pension systems. Total assets under management by the Division were approximately $80 billion.

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Bill Miller, CFA

Chairman, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager

Bill Miller is the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Legg Mason Capital Management. He also currently serves as the portfolio manager for the Value Trust and Opportunity Trust mutual funds. Mr. Miller assumed overall responsibility for the equity funds management area of Legg Mason in late 1990.

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Michael Dooley

Chief Economist and Partner, Cabezon Investment Group

Chief Economist and Partner, Cabezon Investment Group

Michael Dooley is Chief Economist and Partner at Cabezon Investment Group and Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and is a Managing Editor of the International Journal of Finance and Economics.

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Consuelo Mack

Author and Managing Editor, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack on Public Television

Consuelo Mack has a long and distinguished career in business journalism. In 2005 she struck out on her own to launch her dream program, a weekly half-hour program on public television devoted to helping Americans build and protect their wealth over the long-term. Now in its seventh season, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack has been dubbed the “Cramer Antidote” by the press and Money Magazine name Mack “The Best Money TV Host.” WealthTrack is the only program on television devoted to long-term diversified investing in all of the investments people care about: stocks, bonds, real estate, insurance, art and collectibles.

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Alfonso Prat-Gay

Former Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina (Dec '02 - Sept '04)

Head of Government Teams, Coalición Cívica (main opposition party).
He is the President of Andares, an NGO devoted to the development of microfinance and Chairman of Tilton Capital, an asset management company based in Buenos Aires.

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Denis Beau

Director General, Operations, Banque de France

Denis Beau is the Director General of Operations and a member of the Executive Committee of Banque de France. He co-chairs the French SEPA Committee and participates in a number of bodies both at national and international levels. Born in 1962, he joined Banque de France in 1986 after graduating from l’Institut d’Etudes Politiques in Paris. He subsequently received a Master degree in Business Administration from INSEAD. He also served at the Bank for International Settlements as secretary of the G10 Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems.

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