Paul Horne is an independent market economist with over 40 years experience in Europe analyzing international economics and financial markets for multinational investors, concentrating on economic events driving equity and fixed income markets. In addition to writing about and discussing international markets, he is an active member of U.S. and European economist groups and is known for his long-time support of the European Union and the euro. Dividing his time between Virginia and Paris, he specializes in trans-Atlantic economic-financial-political relations.

In July 2001, Paul retired as the London-based European Equity Market Economist and a Managing Director of Smith Barney of the Citigroup financial services organization. He joined Smith Barney in 1975 in Paris as Chief International Economist and member of the Investment Policy Committee. A Managing Director from 1987, he remained in Paris until the Salomon Brothers merger with Smith Barney in 1997 took him to London. Throughout his career, his primary interlocutors were Smith Barney's principal institutional clients fund managers responsible for large international equity and fixed income portfolios.

Responsible for analyzing economic investment themes and opportunities in European equity markets, he was on the stock steering committee and a director of Smith Barney Global Capital Management. Annually, he analyzed the interaction of international monetary policy and equity markets in the Salomon Smith Barney Guide To World Equity Markets book published by Euromoney.

Today he speaks and writes on key economic issues affecting markets. In September 2003, his analysis of the impact of Enronitis on the U.S. dollar and economy, published by the Business Economics journal of the U.S. National Association for Business Economics in October 2002, was awarded a prize for being one of the best articles in 2002. In it, he and a noted French economist debated how the Enronitis business scandals would affect the dollars economic competitiveness. His forecast of significant dollar weakness proved correct.

Before joining Smith Barney, Paul was a specialized economic-financial journalist in Rome in the 1960s with Newsweek magazine and The Times (London). He subsequently worked with the Rockefeller-controlled IBEC financial services subsidiary in Rome and Brussels. Born in the U.S., Paul earned a BA at Yale University.

Since late 2003, he is a Director and Secretary of the USA Foundation of The American Library in Paris. He is also a member of the: U.S. National Association for Business Economics (and on NABE's Editorial Board), U.K. Society of Business Economists; France's Association of Business Economists (AFEDE), Societe d'Economie Politique, American Club of Paris, and Cercle de l'Union Interallize; The University Club of New York; The Metropolitan Club of Washington, and the U.S. Conference Board's European Council of Economists (co-chairman in 1990 and 1991).

His articles and forecasts have been published in the Financial Times, Currency Forecaster, Euromoney, Business Economics, The Times (London), Le Nouvel Economiste, l'Express, Les Echos, Commentaire, la Revue Francaise d'Economie, The Institutional Investor; and other economic-financial journals. His report on "The Cardinal As A Money Manager" was the cover feature of the Institutional Investor magazine in January 1971, and is still regarded as the first officially-authorized account of Vatican finances. He analyzed Italy's unique inflation experience in Prof. Ezra Solomon's book on "International Patterns of Inflation: A Study in Contrasts".
Education
Ph.D. in Finance, The University of Tennessee. (1986)
MBA in Finance, Wright State University (1981)
Diploma in Mechanical and Electrical Engineering (BS/MS), National Technical University of Athens (1979)
Professional Engineering (PE) Certification (1979)
Areas of Expertise
Valuation and Corporate Restructuring, Treasury and Risk/Hedging Operations, Investment Banking, Securitization, Emerging Capital Markets, Multinational Finance, Bank Asset-Liability Management.
Selected Publications
"Lesson in Structuring Derivatives Exchanges" (with P.Varangis) The World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 15, No. 1, February 2000, pp. 85-98.
"The Differentiation of Emerging Equity Markets," (with P.C. Kumar) Applied Financial Economics Vol. 9, No. 4, Fall 1999, 443-453.
"Do Dividend Omissions Signal Future Earnings or Past Earnings?" (With Zaher Zantout and Sam Szewczyk) Journal of Investing Vol. 7, No. 2, Winter 1997, pp. 2-19. (Lead Article)
"Contagion Effects in Stock Returns and Analysts' Forecasts: The Case of Mutual Benefit Life Insurance Corporation," (with Sam Szewczyk and Martin Thomas) Quarterly Journal of Economics and Business Vol. 36, No. 1, Winter 1997, pp. 2-15. (Lead Article)
"Pricing and Valuation of Cash-Out Tender Offers: The Case of Koll Management Services Inc." Journal of Financial Education Vol. 13, No. 2, Fall 1996, pp. 94-105.
"The Valuation of Corporate R&D Expenditures: Evidence from Investment Opportunities and Free Cash Flow," (with Zaher Zantout and Sam Szewczyk) Financial Management, Vol. 25, No. 1, Spring 1996, pp. 105-111.
"Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Capital Markets," (with R. DeFusco and J. Geppart), Financial Review, Vol. 31, No. 2, May 1996, pp. 343-363.
"The Information Role of Tender Offer Stock Repurchases: Evidence from Institutional Ownership," (with M. Ratner and Sam Szewczyk) Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 23, No. 5, July 1996, pp.869-880.
"An Examination of Open Market Stock Repurchases: Cash Flow Signaling, Investments and Tobin's Q," Journal of Applied Financial Economics, (with Feng-Ying Liu and N. Floros) Vol. 6, No. 1, February 1996, pp. 9-18.
"Diversification in Emerging Stock Markets and the Investment Horizon," (with R. DeFusco and J. Geppart), Journal of Investing, Vol. 5, No 4, Winter 1995, pp. 25-31.
Awards
Best Paper Award for the paper "Emerging Capital Markets: Results from Cointergration Tests," (with R. DeFusco and John Geppert). Paper presented at the Annual Meeting on Multinational Financial Issues in Atlantic City, NJ June 2, 1994.
Professional Experience
1996-97, Bear Stearns/NMBG Investment Bank (Sabbatical Leave)